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Last updated:
August 31, 2010 11:51 AM

2010 to Date: The Good and the Scary
By Doug Cooke, Publisher

Now that we are well into the 3rd quarter of what is supposed to be a year of recovery, how is the travel industry really doing? Are we skipping up Easy Street or are we plodding down Recovery Avenue? Or does it depend on what sector of the industry you are in? Industry research leader Phocuswright held a webinar this past week to discuss Q2 sales and expectations for the rest of 2010. This information combined with the latest ARC report tells a tale of slow and steady growth for 2010. However, there were also some scary revelations for travel agents, as shown below.
The Good
There is no question that the airline industry is in a state of recovery and renewed profitability. According to July ARC reporting, total airline transactions are up almost 8% year to date, while total sales are up 20%. Airfares, as we all know, are on the rise and were up over 15% in Q2 compared to last year. Airlines are enjoying near record high load factors due largely to the fact that capacity has been reduced by 15% over the past couple of years.
Hotel and resort sales are also up a healthy 9% year to date.
The Phocuswight research also revealed some good news for travel agents. While the OTA’s (Priceline, Orbitz, etc.) are still outpacing offline sales (travel agents) the growth of bookings on the OTA’s is slowing and in fact the sale of air is shifting back to more traditional channels and suppliers. Their research further revealed that OTA’s have had very limited success in their attempts to break into the “packaging of travel services,” i.e. the online sales of tour packages. This lucrative business is still bought primarily through travel agents.
The Scary
Phocuswright research indicates that OTA marketing/advertising spending was down in Q2 of 2010. What’s so scary about that? The fact that they still spent over $400 million combined in their ongoing efforts to convince your clients to book direct. And how much was spent so far this year by anyone to convince consumers to book with a travel agent? None that I am aware of, and therein lies the problem. The travel agent distribution system needs an organization that will champion its cause and launch a massive and ongoing advertising/public relations effort to compete with the OTAs. In my mind ASTA is the natural choice and I trust that whoever they hire as the new CEO will look to steer the organization in this direction.
And what does the outlook for the rest of 2010/2011 look like? Most research indicates a slow yet steady recovery through the rest of 2010 and an even better year ahead in 2011.

Subscribe by Email Subscribe by RSS	GREEN CORNER 10-10 HAS DOUBLE MEANING IN 2010 By Mike Kong and the NYPATA Green Team In addition to the traditional Double Ten celebrations ofTaiwan, which will host the exciting Taipei Flora Expo this year, an organization called 350.org, founded by Middlebury College teacher and environmental activist Bill McKibben, will be sponsoring the equivalent of a global "work in" to help bring awareness of our climate crisis to the attention of world leaders. Their flagstone event for 2010 will be the Global Work Party on 10/10/10 -- "A Day to Celebrate Climate Solutions." You can sign up to host a local event at www.350.org/oct10, or search for an event to join at www.350.org/map. Every NYPATA member should do one small thing toward this common goal. If you have any suggestions for members, or plan to organize a work party, email: patagreenteam@optimum.net and we'll post your event.
Fred. Olsen Offers Theme Cruises, New Itineraries HAPAG-LLOYD CRUISES’ NEW COLUMBUS ALL-INCLUSIVE PACKAGE Holland America Offers Grand Voyages Fall 2011 and Early 2012
Selecting the Right Host Agency or Consortia By Doug Cooke, Publisher A s the number of brick and mortar agencies continues to decline, with the latest ARC statistics reporting 15,457 locations (down 8% from July 2009), more and more travel agents find themselves in need of a “home” for their business. Most industry suppliers require some sort of proof of an agent’s professionalism whether it be an ARC, CLIA or TRUE number. As more agents take their businesses home, they Read More...	Home Based Travel Agent Registry By Doug Cooke, Publisher I have been very happy with the positive response from the “soft launch” of our new Home BasedTravel Agent Registry (HBTAR) announced on this page last month. Both travel agents and travel suppliers have responded by signing up and sending us letters of encouragement and support for a service that has been needed and is long overdue. Our idea Read More...
What It Takes To Keep Looking Forward Last month I suggested that the staggering percentage of American consumers who were opting to plan their vacations closer to home and at the last minute pointed to a collective redefinition of what consumers are looking to get out of their vacations. The good news, broadly speaking, is that spending is rebounding enough to make the majority of consumers feel comfortable taking the time and investing their money once again in leisure travel. We have all been reading all sorts of recent commentary on the return of consumer confidence, and everyone seems to have their own set of data to point to and stomp their feet. Without making too much of things like the rise in UPS shipping or the number of TV sets owned per household, this upbeat really is worth pausing to recognize. According to the 2010 Survey of Affluence & Wealth in America, published by American Express Publishing and Harrison Group, luxury spending is back for the first time in three years. This is not however, the return of the same luxury spending that existed three years ago. The study predicts that resourcefulness and needs-based spending will continue to be the norm, but points to where positive attitudes are emerging at the intersection of luxury and value. In other words, people are not going to revert to consumerism across the board, but are engaging in precision shopping in maybe one or two areas. This spending is generally considered to be an outgrowth of optimism and not escapism. This optimism about living standards has long been traced back to the availability of opportunities to learn and grow at work, and yet I would not venture to say this is something we all enjoy. Amidst all this talk about the wealthy consumer, where does everyone else fit in? For many, the recession itself may be over but the challenges are not. The fear of job loss is gradually being replaced with the reality of feeling stalled. In the face of uncertainty, it’s easy to fall into a routine of thoughtful inaction, waiting for the next development to occur naturally, thinking too much of the possible outcomes and not enough about what’s happening in the meantime. When it comes to selling, none of this is really effective. Uncertainty is a host for distraction and rather than allowing ourselves to become mired, we must continually ask “What did I do this week?” and “How effective was it?” In challenging times, self-awareness is your best tool. Make a point to accept who you are and take an interest in the people around you. The challenge of going to work and pressing on without external reward can be mitigated by giving your attention to the relationships you have. People—co-workers, employees and clients alike—will appreciate it.
2010 EDITORIAL CALENDAR
OCTOBER COVER: GERMANY Africa & Mid. East: Israel, African Safaris Asia & S. Pacific: India, China Caribbean:Antigua & Barbuda C. & S. America: Brazil Carnival, Cancun-Mexico Cruise News: Worldwide Cruise Guide Europe Spain, Greece Industry News: Travel Technology USA & Canada: Southern Florida SUPPLEMENT: 2010 Guide to worldwide cruises Editorial material/Ad space reservation: September 2 Ad material is due on or before: September 10	NOVEMBER COVER: CYPRUS Africa & Mid. East: Ethiopia, Qatar Asia & S. Pacific: Japan, New Zealand Caribbean: Holiday Packages, Jamaica C. & S. America: Peru, Panama Cruise News; Caribbean Sailings, Ship Review Europe: Belgium, France News: Home Based Agent, Hosts, Co-ops and Consortia USA & Canada: New York City, NY, Ski the West Editorial material/Ad space reservation: October 7 Ad material is due on or before: October 15
DECEMBER COVER: ISRAEL Africa & Mid. East: Egypt, Western Africa Asia: Fiji, Cook Islands, Tahiti, N. Caledonia Caribbean: Puerto Rico & USVI, Anguilla C. & S. Americ:a Guatemala, Colonial Mexico Cruise News: China River Cruises Europ:e Italy, Iceland, Mediterranean Islands Industry New:s Guerrilla Marketing USA & Canada: Las Vegas, North East Ski Editorial material/Ad space reservation: November 4 Ad material is due on or before: November 12	2011 EDITORIAL CALENDAR JANUARY COVER FEATURE: CHINA SUPPLEMENTS DISTRIBUTED WITH JAXFAX JANUARY: TRAVEL AGENT SPECIALIST PROGRAMS MARCH: 2011 AIR CONSOLIDATOR GUIDE JULY: GUIDE TO HOST AGENCIES & CONSORTIA
This Editorial Calendar was last updated on: Tuesday, August 31, 2010 11:33 AM
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